[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.19.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_fullwidth_header title=”Greece\u2019s map for predicting wildfires is anachronistic and inadequate” subhead=”An investigation of MIIR ” image_orientation=”bottom” title_last_edited=”off|phone” content_tablet=”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
By Kostas Zafeiropoulos <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
4\/8\/2023 <\/p>\n
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By Kostas Zafeiropoulos<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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By Kostas Zafeiropoulos<\/p>\n
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4\/8\/2023<\/p>\n
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\u00a0<\/pre>\nPhoto: The spread of the deadly Mati fire in 2018, as it was simulated by the IRIS 2.0 rapid response forecast system.- Source: Meteo.gr, 2021<\/em><\/h6>\n
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In the space of just 13 days in July 2023, 470,000 acres of Greek forest were burnt to ashes. Greece\u2019s state machinery is proving inadequate to deal with extreme weather phenomena. In Rhodes, 15% of the entire island was ravaged in the worst fire in decades. From 1 January to 1 August 2023, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), a total of 550,000 hectares were burnt in the 22 largest forest fires. This is more than four times the average amount of land burnt in the years 2006-2022.<\/p>\n
In\u00a0an earlier survey by MIIR in collaboration with WWF on the economics of forest-fire protection<\/a>\u00a0we showed that, for the period 2016-2020, only 16.05% of public funds for fire protection were spent on fire prevention. Most, 83.95%, was spent on fire suppression. This ratio has not changed significantly since then: the Greek state has continued to invest in suppression instead of prevention. Another major problem can be found in the state\u2019s inadequate use of scientific data during the fire season.<\/p>\n
A typical case is the notorious fire-risk forecast map, which is\u00a0published daily<\/a>\u00a0at 12.30pm by the General Secretariat of Civil Protection, in a rather opaque manner. This map is reproduced by all the media and forms the basis of the national Fire Service\u2019s operational planning. It started to be used in 2003 and is published daily from 1 June to 31 October each year, under the purview of the Civil Protection. However, for twenty years now, none of the experts has known exactly what data and scientific methodology is used to produce this map.<\/p>\n
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Photo: The Civil Protection’s fire risk forecast map for 18 July, the day the huge fire broke out in Rhodes. The risk level for the island and the rest of the Dodecanese region was placed in the middle of the scale, which is classified as “high”. – Source: Ministry of Climate and Civil Protection.<\/em><\/h6>\n
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\u00a0Intuition instead of data<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u201cThe map circulated by the Civil Protection, whose derivation we do not know, has no scientific sources, does not mention how the different categories are regulated, nor what it takes into account. My assessment is that the Civil Protection map comes out on the basis of simple intuition,\u201d says Kostas Lagovardos, meteorologist and research director at the National Observatory of Athens.<\/p>\n
The map\u2019s first drawback, according to experts, is this lack of clarity about the exact scientific data used.<\/p>\n